The infographic shows the position of the Moon crescent relative to the Sun’s position about the Western horizon at local sunset, and its predicted visibility based on New Criterion for Lunar Crescent (2005) by Mohammad SH. Odeh. Also presented on the graph are the minimum lines of different criterion to start the new Hijrah month adopted by different country/organization.

Sighting the new crescent on April 01, 2022, is shown in the chart for selected cities. In summary, the Moon is below the Danjon’s Limit and not sufficiently illuminated in order to be seen as a crescent from many region globally. The moon crescent may be seen with difficulty in Hawaii and westernmost part of the world.

These are pre-calculated data, the actual start of the fasting month of Ramadan should be referred to your country’s official authority.

Wallahu’alam bisshawab ( والله أعلمُ بالـصـواب )

(Original visibility chart concept & credit: Mutoha Arkanuddin, Yogyakarta)

Abstract

The first part of this dissertation investigates methods of predicting the first visibility of the lunar crescent: an astronomical problem that has attracted the interest of man since ancient times. Many early nations used lunar calendars, the months of which began on the evening of the first sighting of the lunar crescent after conjunction. In modern times, the resolution of this astronomical problem is of special importance -both for historians who need to determine ancient dates exactly and for Muslims around the world, whose religious calendar is lunar. The interest in this matter over the centuries has resulted in the appearance of a number of solutions by a variety of authors for predicting the first visibility of the lunar crescent.

The purpose of the first part of this dissertation is to assess the accuracy of these prediction models using ancient, mediaeval and modern observational data and to explore possible improvement. The study concludes that the concept of a “zone of uncertainty” must be incorporated into any lunar
visibility criterion; it further applies this conclusion to the widely used modern criterion of true lunar altitude versus azimuthal difference between the sun and moon. The observational data show that developing a “zone of uncertainty” in this particular criterion yields the best results of all.

The second part of the dissertation is an investigation of six problems in historical astronomy. These are: (i) assessing the accuracy of solar eclipse observations made by Jesuit astronomers in China; (ii) assessing the accuracy of lunar eclipse observations made by Jesuit astronomers in China; (iii) dating the solar eclipse of Thales; (iv) determining the modern equivalent of the Babylonian angular units of measurement; (v) dating the eclipses of Thucydides; and (vi) dating the solar eclipse of Plutarch. All papers have been published or are currently in press.

Original download link: First visibility of the lunar crescent and other problems in historical astronomy. – Durham e-Theses

Abstract. A new criterion for lunar crescent visibility has been established using 737 observations, almost half of them obtained by the Islamic Crescent Observation Project (ICOP). This criterion is based on two variables, viz. the topocentric arc of vision and the topocentric crescent width. The new model is able to predict the visibility of the lunar crescent both for naked eye and optically aided observations. From the database we found a Danjon limit of 6.4 degrees.

Introduction The lunar crescent visibility has been studied by many astronomers since the Babylonian era, with as a result currently more than 12 different criteria for lunar crescent visibility, based on a number of sightings in different lunar conditions. Many of these criteria were developed by Islamic astronomers, since a number of Islamic religiouseventsaredirectlyrelatedtolunarcrescentsighting.Forexample,thenew Lunar (Hijric) month begins on the next day of sighting the new crescent at west after sunset.

Download HERE New Criterion Crescent.pdf

The table above provides the dates and concise data to hunt for the youngest possible lunar crescent in this country, which is a very challenging activity.

First sighting of the new crescent moon is used as the basis of various calendars to signal the start of the new month. For instance, Islam requires that the sighting of the the new crescent moon should be made with the naked eye.

Predicting the first sighting of the new crescent moon has been attempted since the time of the Babylonians. These ancient methods relied on the age of the Moon and the time difference between moonset and sunset. More modern methods use the angular separation of the Sun and Moon, the altitude difference between the Sun and Moon, their relative azimuths and the width of the crescent.

The following table shows the dates of possible first sighting of new moon crescent (in Arabic known as hilal) for Brunei Darussalam. These dates are colour-coded based on the moon altitude and a crude prediction of the new moon sighting can be related as follow:

1. Red that indicates the moon altitude which is less than 2°. A very slim chance of visibility due to low altitude.
2. Orange that signifies the moon altitude between 2° and 5.5°. There is a slim chance of crescent visibility. However visibility might be improved with the use of optical aids and excellent atmospheric conditions.
3. Yellow that the moon is at altitude between 5.5° and 7.5°. There is a good chance that the crescent is visible to the naked eyes under excellent atmospheric conditions.
4. Green that shows the moon’s altitude is more than 7.5°. The lunar crescent is positioned reasonably high above the horizon making it easily visible to the naked eye.

If you manage to sight the crescent on the dates provided, please share your experience and photos via pabd@bruneiastronomy.org

More info: Jadual Kenampakan Pertama Anak Bulan Di Negara Brunei Darussalam 2000 – 2099

Buku ini adalah dihasratkan sebagai rujukan bagi ilmuan-ilmuan di Negara Brunei Darussalam dan sumbangan kajian berunsur saintifik. Di dalam buku ini terkandung kompilasi jadual waktu bagi kenampakan anak bulan yang pertama. Penghasilan jadual ialah dengan mengunakan berbagai-bagai perisian astronomi dan program yang diaturacara oleh Hazarry bin Hj Ali Ahmad.

Download: Jadual Kenampakan Anak Bulan di Brunei Darussalam 2000 – 2099 (Edisi Terkini) 

New moon crescent first global visibility curve for Ramadan this year, 2014

Visibility Predictions for the New Crescent Moon are catagorised by
A Easily visible
B Visible under perfect conditions
C May need optical aid to find the crescent Moon
D Will need optical aid to find the crescent Moon
E Not visible with a telescope
F Not visible, below the Danjon limit

Download below:

When the distinguished French astronomer Andre Danjon was the director of Strasbourg Observatory, he became engaged in determining the light curve of the Moon. In 1931 he noticed that the Moon of August 13, which was only 16.2 hr before new, extended only 75-80° from cusp to cusp. In other words, Danjon found that the outer terminator of the crescent was considerably less than a complete half-circle, which it should have been theoretically. This was not an isolated observation because other observations, and also examination of previous records, showed that this shortening of the crescent was a general and real phenomenon. Danjon also noticed that the shortening diminishes as the angular distance of the Moon from the Sun increases.

Prediction of the first visibility of the lunar crescent is a difficult problem involving astronomy, meteorology, and physiology. Historically, this problem has been attacked by an empirical approach where some set of observations is used to deduce a criterion for visibility. In this paper, I present a list of 201 observations and their observing circumstances for use in deriving and testing prediction algorithms. I find that criteria involving the moonset lagtime and the Moon’s age are quite bad in their predictive ability. Criteria involving the relative altitude and azimuth of the Moon at sunset are better, yet still can yield incorrect predictions within a zone of uncertainty with a width of over 105 degrees in longitude. The new theoretical model of Schaefer ( 1 988) is found to have a zone of uncertainty with an average total width of 47 degrees in longitude.